India-Bangladesh Water Issues Reappear as Bangladesh-Pakistan Relations Rapidly Progress

Dr. Srini Sitaraman, Professor, Daniel K. Inouye Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies (DKI APCSS), Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
Ms. Anuttama Banerji, Research Fellow, National Maritime Foundation (MNF), New Delhi, India

Pakistan-Bangladesh Rapidly Re-Establish Formal Political Relations Five Decades Later

The regional political order in South Asia has transformed overnight since the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government on August 5, 2024.[1] The former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Ms. Sheikh Hasina, whose father founded the state of Bangladesh in 1971, fled Bangladesh in haste in the wake of massive protests against her government.[2]

The growing affability between Bangladesh’s interim caretaker leader, Mr. Mohammed Yunus, and Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Mr. Shehbaz Sharif, was evident during their face-to-face meeting on the sidelines of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation Summit held in Cairo, Egypt, in December 2024. Both leaders instantly agreed to strengthen bilateral relations, including trade, defense, and cultural ties.[3] Since their meeting in December 2024, Bangladesh and Pakistan have intensified high-level exchanges and opened up trade relations, which did not exist during the tenure of Ms. Hasina. Direct trade has begun earnestly with Pakistan, with the shipment of 50,000 tons of rice from Port Qasim in Karachi to Bangladesh.[4] In addition, Pakistan and Bangladesh have also established a joint business council to enhance trade and economic relations between the countries.[5] Similarly, the Bangladesh government has removed the visa restrictions on Pakistani citizens by eliminating the requirement for security clearance before issuing a visa.[6]

Suddenly Emerging Bangladesh-Pakistan Defense Cooperation

Bangladesh, under interim leader Mohammed Yunus, has expressed interest in procuring Chinese-designed JF-17 fighter jets made in collaboration with the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC).[7] Other Reports have also suggested that Bangladesh is keen to acquire short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) from Pakistan, specifically the “Abdali SRBM” to deter any possible attack from India.[8] There have been high-level military visits from Bangladesh to Pakistan, and Pakistan’s senior military leaders from the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI) visited Bangladesh early in January 2025, which set off alarm bells in India.[9] Bangladesh participated in the ninth edition of the Multinational Maritime Exercise—the Aman 2025.[10] In January 2025, the Principal Staff Officer of the Armed Forces Division of Bangladesh met the Pakistani Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Asim Munir during the former’s visit to Pakistan.[11] More recently, Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary, Ms. Amna Baloch, also visited Bangladesh to hold bilateral talks with her counterpart, Ms. Jashim Uddin, in preparation for a high-level trade and foreign affairs meeting.[12]

Resetting the Political Order in South Asia

The post-Hasina transition has put India-Bangladesh ties to the test and reset Bangladesh’s relations with Pakistan. This has reconfigured the balance of power in South Asia and broken the stable India-Bangladesh times under Prime Minister Hasina. During the last fifteen years, Indo-Bangladesh relations have achieved significant progress in security cooperation, border management, trade, water-sharing agreements, and counter-insurgency collaboration. Leading commentators had opined that the India-Bangladesh relationship had entered its “golden era” during this time.[13] Many of these initiatives are currently on hold, highlighting a deep period of disengagement in bilateral relations.

Suspension of the River Water Agreements: The Case of the Teesta River Water Agreement

The Teesta River water arrangement is a water sharing agreement over the waters of the Teesta, which continues to be an emotive issue in India and Bangladesh.[14] Water-sharing treaties on all fifty or more transboundary rivers, including the Ichamati, Manu, and Gomti, are currently in abeyance.[15] The issue of water sharing could become increasingly significant in the future, given the growing calls within the Indian Parliament to stop the flow of river waters to Bangladesh.[16]

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Bangladesh’s Awami League party had demonstrated some political and ideological alignment. Yet, both parties maintained independent trajectories in their respective domestic and foreign policy agendas. Some would even argue that Prime Minister Hasina had India’s backing in her regional diplomacy.[17] With the Hasina government losing power in Bangladesh in August 2024, India has lost its social constituency within Bangladesh, and this is likely to accelerate the differences between India and Bangladesh in a pronounced manner.

The South Asian subcontinent is presently contending with heightened geopolitical tensions. There has been a renewed surge of insurgency and political unrest in Northeast India, particularly in the border regions adjoining Myanmar. Regional infrastructure projects facilitating trade and transportation in the northeastern corridor have also slowed down. It is unclear whether the growing bonhomie between Bangladesh and Pakistan is a genuine attempt to seek bilateral accommodation and understanding fifty years after Bangladesh became independent, or a poorly disguised attempt by both countries to balance against India in the subcontinent by creating a security and economic partnership with large external actors.[18] To have a lasting footprint, India should also attempt to build bipartisan support with all political parties in Bangladesh. Such an approach will enable India to broaden and deepen its support within the Bangladeshi populace and shape regional security through diplomacy.

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Dr. Srini Sitaraman is a Professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia Pacific for Security Studies based in Honolulu, Hawaii. He benefited from various engagements and conversations during his visit to Amritsar, New Delhi, and Kolkata, India, earlier this year, in generating ideas for this article.

The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of DKI APCSS, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) of the linked websites, or the information, products, or services contained therein. DoD does not exercise any editorial, security, or other control over the information you may find at these sites.

Ms. Anuttama Banerji is a Research Associate for the National Maritime Foundation (NMF) based in New Delhi, India.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the views of the National Maritime Foundation (NMF) or any of the agencies of the Government of India.

[1] Azad Majumder, Rebecca Tan, Karishma Mehrotra, and Anant Gupta, “Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigns and flees country,” Washington Post, August 5, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/05/bangladesh-prime-minister-hasina-resigns/

[2] Embassy of Bangladesh, “Kuwait, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Father of the Nation,” https://kuwait.mofa.gov.bd/en/site/page/father-of-the-nation

[3] Sahil Sinha, “Settle issues of 1971 war: Bangladesh’s Muhammad Yunus to Pak PM Shehbaz Sharif,” India Today, December 20, 2024, https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/bangladesh-muhammad-yunus-meets-pakistan-pm-shehbaz-sharif-in-egypt-settle-issues-of-1971-war-2652909-2024-12-20

[4] Economic Times, “Pakistan, Bangladesh resume direct trade for first time since 1971 separation,” February 23, 2025, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/pakistan-bangladesh-resume-direct-trade-for-first-time-since-1971-separation/articleshow/118500678.cms

[5] The Express Tribune, “Pakistan, Bangladesh to establish joint business council,” January 14, 2025, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2522117/pakistan-bangladesh-sign-landmark-agreement-to-establish-joint-business-council

[6] Shivani Sharma, “Easy access to ISI in Bangladesh? Country’s new Pak visa move sparks concerns,” India Today, August 06, 2024, https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/pakistan-isi-northeast-india-bangladesh-visa-policy-security-threat-2649124-2024-12-13

[7] Express Tribune, “Bangladesh military officials express interest in JF-17 Thunder fighter jet,” January 15, 2025, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2522349/bangladesh-military-officials-express-interest-in-jf-17-thunder-fighter-jet

[8] Aaj TV, “Bangladesh seeking ballistic missiles from Pakistan: report,” December 30, 2025, https://english.aaj.tv/news/330395365/bangladesh-seeking-ballistic-missiles-from-pakistan-report

[9] Rezaul H Laskar, “Red flags in Delhi as a 4-member ISI team from Pak makes a quiet visit to Dhaka,” Hindustan Times, January 23, 2025, https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/isi-team-in-dhaka-less-than-a-week-after-top-bangladesh-general-s-visit-to-pakistan-101737633641253.html

[10] Shazia Hasan, “Aman-25 drills kick off with focus on regional cooperation,” The Dawn, February 8, 2025, https://www.dawn.com/news/1890531

[11] The Dawn, “Pakistan, Bangladesh underscore ‘enduring partnership’ for resilience against external influences,” January 24, 2025, https://www.dawn.com/news/1885175/pakistan-bangladesh-underscore-enduring-partnership-for-resillience-against-external-influences

[12] Julhas Alam, “Bangladesh and Pakistan resume talks after 15 years, seek to mend strained ties,” Seattle Post Intelligencer, April 18, 2025, https://www.seattlepi.com/news/world/article/bangladesh-pakistan-officials-resume-bilateral-20280984.php

[13] Anasua Basu Roy, “The ‘Golden Chapter’ of India-Bangladesh diplomacy,” Observer Research Foundation (ORF), 04 September 2022, https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-golden-chapter-of-india-bangladesh-diplomacy

[14] Anuttama Banerji, “India Must Settle the Teesta River Dispute With Bangladesh for Lasting Gains,” The Diplomat, 09 April 2021, https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/india-must-settle-the-teesta-river-dispute-with-bangladesh-for-lasting-gains/

[15] Abu Siddique, “Bangladesh seeks Indian cooperation on ten more shared rivers,” Dialogue Earth, October 11, 2016, https://dialogue.earth/en/water/bangladesh-seeks-indian-cooperation-on-ten-more-shared-rivers/

[16] WION, “After Indus Waters Treaty suspension, BJP MP calls for stopping water to Bangladesh,” 27 April 2025, https://www.wionews.com/india-news/after-indus-waters-treaty-suspension-bjp-mp-calls-for-stopping-water-to-bangladesh-9008124

[17] Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan, “Why India is so concerned about Bangladesh’s political problems,” East Asia Forum, September 14, 2024, https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/09/14/why-india-is-so-concerned-about-bangladeshs-political-problems/

[18] Toru Takahashi, “India faces policy dilemma as Pakistan and Bangladesh draw closer together,” Nikkei Asia, March 18, 2025, https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Comment/India-faces-policy-dilemma-as-Pakistan-and-Bangladesh-draw-closer-together