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Deon Canyon

Strategic Approaches to Simplifying Complex Adaptive Crises

By |2021-01-07T15:39:18-10:00January 7th, 2021|

Complexity and Systems Thinking We live and work in a world that is shrinking due to interconnectivity, but growing in terms of relationship diversity. Jostling world powers, enlarging economies, emerging technology, nefarious disruption, increased rate of change, and rapid diffusion of new innovations into society all act to increase threat, urgency and uncertainty (Lane and Down 2010, Sargut and McGrath 2011, Rohrbeck and Gemuenden 2011). The impact of this dynamic on the security environment has been to accelerate the development of current challenges and the emergence of novel challenges. Security challenges are fraught with complexity and have many of the [...]

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Competitive Security Gaming: Rethinking Wargaming to Provide Competitive Intelligence that Informs Strategic Competition and National Security

By |2020-12-01T16:06:35-10:00November 24th, 2020|

This article illustrates how wargaming may be used to inform a higher-level strategy, rather than conflict. Summary Generating competitive intelligence to make intelligent decisions in a world increasingly facing complex security challenges is more difficult than ever before. Competitive Security Gaming reframes wargaming in terms of strategic, operational and tactical competition rather than conflict. Like business wargames, it produces quality insight into the reactions and strategies of competing actors. But unlike business games, it focuses on higher-level strategy, such as national security objectives, and is not driven by market value and financial gain. When it comes to operationalizing strategic competition [...]

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Planning for Military Involvement in an Indo-Pacific Pandemic Vaccination Program

By |2020-11-18T14:48:25-10:00November 18th, 2020|

This article addresses the pros, cons, and planning of military involvement in an Indo-Pacific Pandemic Vaccination Program. Summary The Indo-Pacific contains most of the world’s population and many frail health systems that may falter when it comes to implementing a vast global vaccination campaign against COVID-19. For decades, military medicine has pioneered vaccination programs and is aware of the complex ethical considerations involved. Military involvement in vaccination programs could do immeasurable harm to soft power efforts and international relations if mishandled. It is likely that the Oslo humanitarian doctrine, stipulating that foreign military assistance should only be used as a [...]

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Is the U.S. Relationship with Australia Detrimental to Strategic Aspirations with Papua New Guinea?

By |2020-10-19T15:45:08-10:00October 19th, 2020|

This article discusses the pitfalls of the U.S. - Australia relationship, and how they relate to Papua New Guinea. Excerpt The United States partnership with Australia is beyond doubt the most significant in Oceania. As a western nation, Australia holds many of the same values as the U.S. and there are extensive economic, diplomatic and military ties that bind the two countries together. There are, however, three detractors when it comes to adding Papua New Guinea (PNG) to the equation. While they should not affect the quality of the U.S.-Australia relationship, the U.S. should be seen as actively providing remedies [...]

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Perceptions of U.S. Posture in Papua New Guinea

By |2020-10-14T10:59:37-10:00October 14th, 2020|

This article compares the effects of U.S. posture on the relationship with Papua New Guinea, to that of the People’s Republic of China, along with other influences. Excerpt In Papua New Guinea (PNG), activities by the United States were highly visible in World War II, but have steadily declined ever since. This decay in international relations has been more obvious since the early 2000s when it is contrasted with the rise of Chinese-PNG relations on a political level and on a person-to-person level through infrastructure development and overseas education. The 2011-2012 Obama era Pivot and Rebalance to the Pacific produced [...]

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Strategic Competition, National Security and the Need for ‘Competitive Intelligence’

By |2020-10-14T10:53:48-10:00October 14th, 2020|

This article illustrates how Competitive intelligence lies at the center of any strategy to maintain political, economic and security posture in the Indo-Pacific region. Excerpt We live in an age in which technology is rapidly transforming every aspect of our lives. Since these advances bestow upon nations considerable advantages, they are coveted and sought after with increasing criminally-motivated avarice. This has increased tensions and competition between the great powers, which forces us to analyze how to compete in the present and the coming future. In this age of significant cooperation and competition, we all need a competitive edge to survive [...]

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Maritime Domain Awareness and Maritime Fusion Centers

By |2020-10-01T16:35:16-10:00October 1st, 2020|

This article emphasizes the importance of maritime domain awareness (MDA) and the coordinating efforts of maritime fusion centers (MFC) to support those efforts. Excerpt The essential mission of a MFC is to strengthen MDA by gathering and analyzing data from multiple sources, fusing it into meaningful information, and disseminating actionable intelligence to operational commanders to directly improve national security, safety, economy, and environment. Not all maritime centers source data broadly enough to make fusion meaningful, and not all attempt to adequately fuse data to extrapolate new intelligence. Some of these agencies only focus on internal monitoring and have little to [...]

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Gaming Major Power Rivalry and Climate Disasters Using Systems Tools

By |2020-09-04T10:20:25-10:00September 4th, 2020|

This paper documents a methodology for creating crisis-games that are designed to explore possible futures in the medium and long-term. It describes a four-step process in which security practitioners work on understanding threat systems, delve into the related underlying driving forces of the threats, create future scenarios in which these forces interact and play out, and explore these scenarios using adversarial crisis-games. According to the authors, “While they have their limitations and are not an exact replica of reality, situational, role-playing crisis-games foster the application of creative and innovative thinking on challenges that cannot be analyzed using conventional statistical methods [...]

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China’s Global Security Aspirations with Afghanistan and the Taliban

By |2020-08-13T09:43:31-10:00August 13th, 2020|

This paper details possible motives of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in forming new partnerships with Afghanistan through a historic lens, amidst the effects of COVID-19 and the U.S. withdrawal. Excerpt As the U.S. plans its departure from Afghanistan, China is using the COVID-19 pandemic as a backdrop to build regional ties in meetings with Afghanistan, Nepal and Pakistan that aim to extend the BRI. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, “We will actively promote the building of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Trans-Himalayan Connectivity network, support the extension of the corridor to Afghanistan, and further unleash the dividends [...]

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An International Biodefense Shield Alliance against Pathogens from China

By |2020-08-12T15:13:56-10:00August 12th, 2020|

This paper illustrates the need for the U.S. and regional partners to create a defensive, health-security, front line for disease surveillance and control. Excerpt There is a clear and simple correlation between population size and the occurrence of infectious disease. This places a country, such as China, in a natural, but dangerous and precarious position. Not only does China have a large population, with many of the world’s most populous cities, but its concept of personal space facilitates the rapid spread of disease, and it is connected by trade and travel to virtually every location on the planet. Other nations [...]

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