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Sebastian Kevany

Everything Everywhere All at Once: Wars, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Coups, and Economic Collapse

By |2023-11-29T14:00:40-10:00November 9th, 2023|

Dr. Ethan Allen, Dr. Sebastian Kevany, and Dr. Srini Sitaraman, DKI-APCSS Summary Between escalating active kinetic conflicts and the ever-growing and ever-more-severe environmental impacts of climate disruption, governments around the world are facing increasingly complex choices in dealing with simultaneous and sequential crises. Never before in human history have so many states had to juggle so many disasters in such a short time frame, and our governance mechanisms are, in many cases, woefully inadequate for this overwhelming task. The trends strongly suggest the situation will only get worse in upcoming years. Successfully coping with and improving our degrading physical and [...]

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  In Support of Hospital Ships:  A Need for Reform, not Rejection      

By |2022-07-11T15:03:53-10:00March 22nd, 2022|

By Sebastian Kevany, Michael S. Baker, Deon Canyon, Al Shimkus, Wade Turvold, Mark Middleton, and Amy Russell. A Noble History  Hospital and medical naval ships are by no means a recent addition to the defense toolkits of many world powers, despite them, only in recent years, having achieved public notice and attention.  In the United States, red-cross style military vessels date back as far as the early 19th century; the USS Intrepid and Red Rover ships were designated almost exclusively as humanitarian aid vessels during the Spanish-American and Civil wars.  In the First World War, the USS Solace was used [...]

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A Biodefense Fusion Center to Improve Disease Surveillance and Early Warnings to Enhance National Security

By |2021-09-20T13:01:54-10:00September 20th, 2021|

By Michael Baker1, Jacob Baker2, Deon Canyon3, Sebastian Kevany3 ABSTRACT Intelligence gathering that includes disease surveillance is an important early warning tool that strengthens decision-making capability and national security. U.S. military, medical assets, and intelligence agencies – and those of our allies are crucial for early detection and response in the future fights against emergent disease outbreaks. It is time to establish a BioDefense Fusion Center. Our intelligence agencies, laboratories, civilian institutions, assets of our allies and partner nations, social media and data mining can be interwoven with technology and leveraged for mutual defense. The basic pillars of an early [...]

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Lessons from India’s Handling of the Second Wave of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Surge

By |2021-08-06T14:30:49-10:00August 6th, 2021|

By Srini Sitaraman, Professor, DKI APCSS Sebastian Kevany, Associate Professor, DKI APCSS[*] Abstract The second wave of the coronavirus caused by the mutant Delta variant led to the deaths of 209,182 people from April 15 to June 17, 2021 in India (Data source: Our World in Data). But, some estimates peg the number of COVID-19-related deaths significantly higher (see footnote no. 1). This article assesses India’s handling of the second wave of the coronavirus, and seeks to draw some lessons from India’s experience. Several causes emerged simultaneously and unfortunately, colluded to surprise and overwhelm public health officials and the Indian [...]

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Combating Health-Related Cyber Security Threats with Health Systems Approaches

By |2021-07-12T11:01:53-10:00July 12th, 2021|

By Drs. Sebastian Kevany and Deon Canyon* Cyber Attacks on Health Systems A clear overlap between cyber security and public health realms was made evident during the cyber attacks on Ireland’s health system in May 2021.  Through an encryption process, hackers were able to disable the functionality of the Irish health system, putting lives at risk through the postponement of operations and other essential services. The challenge faced by the Irish government, and the public health system, was to weigh the trade-offs between paying ransom to the hacking group versus risking the release of protected public health information.  At the [...]

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SARS-CoV-2 Mutations, Variants, and National Security

By |2021-05-07T08:34:56-10:00May 8th, 2021|

By Deon Canyon, Sebastian Kevany and Michael S. Baker * Mutations are caused by random, spontaneous errors in the RNA-based genetic code of viruses that occur as the virus replicates within a host. The process of continually emerging, small mutations is called antigenic drift. In influenza and Covid, these mutations are often noticeable by observing changes in viral surface proteins, otherwise known as antigens. The human immune system identifies and reacts to foreign antigens by producing antibodies that target the infection. Most vaccines work by presenting a harmless version of the foreign antigen to train the immune system to be [...]

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An International Public Health and Virus Surveillance Network for National Security

By |2021-05-06T11:02:18-10:00May 6th, 2021|

By Deon Canyon, Sebastian Kevany and Michael S. Baker* Introduction The monitoring and surveillance of novel and variant, emergent and resurgent, infectious viral diseases is a core need for global health and national security. The United States has not, to date, put a priority on the funding and resourcing of private and public laboratories to identify and monitor Covid variants and mutations. While the U.K. sequences 10% of its positive cases, the U.S. currently only inspects around 0.3-1.5% of positive tests for the presence of viral mutations, which is lower than Gambia, Senegal and even Latvia. This created a “gaping [...]

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Anti-Vaccine Sentiment – An Existential Disrupter of National and International Security

By |2021-03-25T11:52:16-10:00March 26th, 2021|

By Deon Canyon and Sebastian Kevany* Vaccine Fears versus Epidemic Containment There are at least 51 brands of viral vaccines containing inactivated or attenuated viruses. Inactivated vaccines prompt an immune response by introducing dead virus particles, while attenuated vaccines contain non-pathogenic live virus particles. These and other vaccines have been extremely effective around the world in preventing 6 million deaths annually, while in the United States, nine diseases have been reduced by 99%. People are unimmunized for various reasons. Most are children who miss out on basic immunization in developing nations due to lack of access. For instance, 190,000 children [...]

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Looking Forward: Pandemic, Economic, Vaccine and Social Predictions for ‘Year Two’

By |2021-03-25T11:16:52-10:00March 25th, 2021|

By Sebastian Kevany and Deon Canyon* Summary:  Over a year in to the global pandemic, demand for prognoses and models that will assist in determining key decisions and planning remains as strong as ever – resulting in entire industries that provide forecasts, foresight and insight into possible future outcomes. This demand is in spite of the numerous failures of scientists, academics, politicians, and modelers to work out what is going to happen next.  Nonetheless, the authors attempt to advise on policy and planning decisions for professional activities over the coming six months, up to Autumn / Fall 2021. Never Make [...]

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Planning for Military Involvement in an Indo-Pacific Pandemic Vaccination Program

By |2020-11-18T14:48:25-10:00November 18th, 2020|

This article addresses the pros, cons, and planning of military involvement in an Indo-Pacific Pandemic Vaccination Program. Summary The Indo-Pacific contains most of the world’s population and many frail health systems that may falter when it comes to implementing a vast global vaccination campaign against COVID-19. For decades, military medicine has pioneered vaccination programs and is aware of the complex ethical considerations involved. Military involvement in vaccination programs could do immeasurable harm to soft power efforts and international relations if mishandled. It is likely that the Oslo humanitarian doctrine, stipulating that foreign military assistance should only be used as a [...]

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