Chapter Nineteen
Balancing Act: Shaping U.S. Policy in the Face of China’s Nuclear Expansion
Bill Wieninger
To say that the Chinese are unwilling to talk about nuclear weapons anywhere is wrong, but what we need now is to open the discourse
between Washington and Beijing on these matters.
— Rose Gottemoeller, former Deputy Secretary General of NATO
Abstract
China’s rapid nuclear arsenal expansion, with hundreds of new missile silos and projections of matching the U.S. arsenal by 2030, poses a critical challenge to U.S. deterrence strategy. This chapter explores the lessons from the Cold War and the Russia-Ukraine war, emphasizing the importance of a secure second-strike capability. It assesses China’s potential motivations and offers policy recommendations for the United States, including strengthening conventional deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and reinforcing alliances like the Quad and AUKUS to counter the growing threat from Beijing.
