Chapter 10
ASEAN Leadership in Flux
Scott D. McDonald
Anyone who fights for the future, lives in it today.
– Ayn Rand, The Romantic Manifesto, 1969
Introduction
The end of the Cold War’s bipolar order ushered in a new era for Southeast Asia, bringing both opportunities and strategic uncertainty. Amidst the shifting landscape, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)—an organization of relatively small powers—emerged as a pivotal vehicle for regional peace and stability. Through its convening power, ASEAN brought major powers together in dialogue and established itself as a central platform for managing regional economic and security affairs. Initiatives like the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting-Plus (ADMM+) reinforced ASEAN’s role as an indispensable hub for regional engagement.
Building on these early successes, ASEAN deepened its integration, expanded its membership, and formalized its aspirations through the 2008 ASEAN Charter. This new foundational document outlined a vision for regional cohesion across political, security, economic, and socio-cultural domains. In the relatively stable environment of the early 2000s—underpinned by a dominant and engaged United States (U.S.)—ASEAN helped build a soft normative order rooted in consensus and dialogue. Yet today, ASEAN’s consensus-based model and widening internal divisions increasingly strain its ability to lead.
The vision of ASEAN centrality gained currency with the rollout of the U.S. Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) framework in 2017. However, intensifying geopolitical competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has raised concerns about ASEAN’s ability to maintain autonomy and relevance in shaping the region’s future. To safeguard its interests and preserve agency, ASEAN must evolve from promoting centrality to exercising leadership.
This chapter begins by assessing the current regional environment and highlighting the interplay of ASEAN, U.S., and PRC ambitions. It then examines the imperative for ASEAN to assume a more assertive leadership role, while identifying structural challenges and institutional constraints. Finally, the chapter introduces the concept of Communities of Common Interest (CCI) and explores how ASEAN can use this approach—together with the theory of cross-cutting cleavages—to build resilient minilateral partnerships and secure its position as the regional leader and cooperative security architect.
