The South China Sea is far more dangerous
than the Taiwan Strait.

— Retired PLA Senior Colonel Zhou Bo, 2023

Introduction

Xi Jinping’s People’s Republic of China (PRC) is aggressively pursuing territorial ambition, often veiled as irredentism, presenting significant challenges to the United States and its partners. This is most prominently manifested in the South China Sea.

The essence of the issue is that Beijing is attempting to compel the international community, through means that include military intimidation, to accept the Chinese claim that the South China Sea is PRC territory rather than an international waterway. China is not the only claimant that has taken controversial actions, but China’s claims are by far the most expansive, and its behavior the most forceful.

The situation is disruptive in several ways. China interferes with other countries in the region carrying out what should be normal activities, such as peaceful military patrols on the high seas and the extraction of resources by countries in their own exclusive economic zones (EEZ).

China’s actions violate and therefore undermine international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS or Law of the Sea), to which Beijing itself is a signatory. While up to now remaining in the gray zone, Chinese actions contribute substantially to an atmosphere of high tension that makes the South China Sea a possible flashpoint for a war that would cause global economic hardship, not to mention the possibility of combat between two nuclear-armed major powers.

The problem of how to deal with this PRC expansionism has divided the region. The Philippines and Vietnam have taken the strongest positions. The governments of Malaysia and Indonesia have pushed back more quietly. At the other end of the spectrum is Cambodia, which has partnered with Beijing to suppress criticism of China.[i] The issue seriously compromises the cohesion and effectiveness of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Governments that would prefer not to choose sides are under conflicting pressures from Washington and Beijing.

The South China Sea dispute exacerbates the competition for regional leadership between China and the United States. Beijing has said its policy relies on historical arrangements that precede and therefore take precedence over modern international law, which the Chinese complain disproportionately reflects the outlook and interests of Western countries. The PRC’s position supports suspicions that today’s Chinese government hopes to restore a modernized version of the ancient Sino-centric tributary system. Washington, on the other hand, promotes a system that will keep U.S. friends and allies in the region free from Chinese military and economic coercion, and that more generally upholds U.S. security interests and commercial opportunities.

This analysis adopts a comparative historical methodology to scrutinize China’s tactics and policies in these contested maritime regions, providing a detailed understanding of Beijing’s strategies across different scenarios and historical moments. The focus is mainly on the South China Sea, where China’s extensive territorial claims have weak legal justification. A geopolitical analysis will probe how ambitions for territorial control, regional dominance, and power projection drive China’s actions.

While U.S.-led efforts have so far thwarted China’s ambitions for an easy victory, they have not deterred China’s incremental advances. As China strengthens its position, the risk of regional states acquiescing to its pressure grows, threatening to diminish the global commons. Countering China’s expansionism may require bolder measures, entailing higher costs and risks for the United States and its partners.

https://doi.org/10.71236/XWWP5254