Chapter 7
Myanmar on the Edge
Miemie Winn Byrd
The edge of chaos is a dangerous place to dwell.
— Niall Ferguson, adapted from
Civilization: The West and the Rest (2010)
Introduction
Amid Indo-Pacific power shifts and intensifying global rivalries, Myanmar is unraveling. Since the 2021 military coup, the country has descended into civil war, mass displacement, and criminal exploitation, transforming from a fragile democracy into a highly contested battleground. Yet, the international response remains muted. This silence risks becoming a strategic failure.
Myanmar’s crisis is not an isolated tragedy. It is a live demonstration of how authoritarian regimes entrench power, how external actors like China exploit instability, and how strategic neglect invites dangerous vacuums. With more than 3.5 million people displaced, a junta sustained by repression and illicit finance, and a growing resistance alliance that has seized 80% of the territory, Myanmar is a nation on the edge—and a region at risk.
China, meanwhile, has quietly deepened its economic and security foothold. It has secured vital corridors to the Indian Ocean, extracted natural wealth, and leveraged Myanmar’s instability to circumvent maritime chokepoints and extend its strategic reach—all while much of the world looks elsewhere.
This chapter contends that Myanmar is no longer a peripheral concern—it is a geopolitical fault line. Understanding the conflict through both realist and constructivist lenses reveals a deeper contest over influence, norms, and order in the Indo-Pacific. What happens in Myanmar will shape not only the future of Southeast Asia but also the credibility of global efforts to support democratic resistance and counter authoritarian expansion across the region.
