Chapter Three
Turbulence Ahead: Has China’s Ascent Reached its Peak?
Ryan C. Agee
The rise of a great power often brings about its own set of challenges, which can lead to its decline.
— Orville Schell and John Delury, Wealth and Power, 2013
Abstract
China’s trajectory has fueled intense debate in recent years. This analysis examines whether China has reached its peak and the geopolitical implications of its current path. By examining economic and military factors, the study highlights the forces behind China’s rise, the potential headwinds hindering its progress, and the risks these pose for the United States. The findings suggest that China has peaked due to demographic and economic pressures, pushing the Chinese Communist Party to choose between internal reforms or rallying the populace around a real or perceived external threat. China’s potential decline presents a critical challenge for U.S. strategic decision-making.
