On February 1, 2021, Myanmar’s military seized power, igniting a firestorm that, four years later, continues to burn. What began as peaceful protests have evolved into a complex, multi-front armed struggle, reshaping Myanmar’s future and reverberating across the Indo-Pacific. The conflict’s impact—on regional security, global power dynamics, and humanitarian stability—remains profound.

To break down this pivotal moment, Dr. Miemie Winn Byrd, a leading expert on Myanmar and professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, joined Dialogue to analyze the battlefield, assess the resistance’s resilience, and examine the far-reaching geopolitical consequences.

THE EVOLVING BATTLEFIELD

Initially expecting a swift consolidation of power, the junta now faces a starkly different reality. Recent reports indicate that the military controls just 21% of Myanmar’s territory, while resistance groups—including ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and pro-democracy forces—hold 42%, with the remainder contested. This dramatic shift is due to the resistance’s effective guerrilla tactics, strategic alliances, and growing local support.

Key EAOs such as the Arakan Army, Kachin Independence Army, and Karen National Union have allied with People’s Defence Forces—formed after the coup—to challenge the Tatmadaw.

“The junta is collapsing under its own corruption,” Dr. Byrd explained. “Its brutal crackdowns—air strikes, mass arrests, and systemic torture—have fueled unprecedented public resistance.” Reports from the UN estimate that over 2.6 million people have been displaced internally, and more than 1 million have fled to neighboring countries, underscoring the staggering human cost of the conflict.

CHINA’S STRATEGIC CALCULUS

China’s involvement in Myanmar extends beyond the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). Beijing views Myanmar as a key link in its Belt and Road Initiative, providing access to the Indian Ocean and vital resources. However, the conflict has disrupted China’s projects and turned Myanmar into a hub for cybercrime targeting Chinese nationals, forcing Beijing to recalibrate its approach.

While China has officially called for stability, it has deepened its engagement with Myanmar’s military, likely to protect its economic and strategic interests. In November 2024, Chinese Premier Li Qiang reaffirmed support for Myanmar’s junta leader, signaling Beijing’s ongoing commitment to its investments and regional influence.

At the same time, China faces growing border instability and rising anti-China sentiment within Myanmar. Many resistance groups view Beijing as complicit in the junta’s survival, complicating China’s long-term approach.

THE RESILIENCE OF THE RESISTANCE

Despite facing a well-equipped military, Myanmar’s resistance movement has remained remarkably cohesive and adaptive. Unlike Syria, where opposition groups fractured, Myanmar’s resistance maintains a shared goal of federal democracy, Dr. Byrd explained.

“The key has been that the people continue to support the resistance and reject the military,” she noted. “Over 80% of the population supports the resistance.” The junta, on the other hand, “has lost its ability to recruit” and now relies on forced conscription.

The movement’s resilience is also fueled by innovative strategies—including social media coordination, decentralized funding, and diaspora support—which have kept the resistance financially and logistically sustained.

ORGANIZED CRIME AND REGIONAL IMPACTS

As Myanmar’s governance collapses, lawlessness has created opportunities for transnational criminal networks. Human trafficking, cyber scams, and the illicit drug trade are surging, spilling into neighboring countries.

Cybercrime, particularly online scams and human trafficking, has surged as “criminal networks exploit the chaos,” Dr. Byrd explained. These scams, often called “pig butchering,” involve befriending victims and then defrauding them of their savings.

Many of these criminal networks, backed by Chinese organized crime groups, now fund both the junta and resistance forces, further complicating the conflict.

LESSONS FROM OTHER CONFLICTS

Many expected Myanmar to follow Syria’s trajectory, yet key differences have emerged. Unlike Syria’s fractured opposition, Myanmar’s resistance has remained unified, maintaining a shared vision for a federal democracy. While the junta retains control over most major cities, its hold over the countryside and border regions has eroded significantly. In contrast, Syria’s Assad regime managed to consolidate its power by securing both urban strongholds and strategic supply lines. Despite these differences, Myanmar’s prolonged instability, much like Syria’s, risks creating power vacuums that could be exploited by criminal networks and external actors.

“Unlike Syria, Myanmar’s resistance is learning to work together,” noted Dr. Byrd. “Decades of mistrust between ethnic groups and the Bamar majority are being overcome through shared struggle. This cooperation is unprecedented.”

POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOS

Myanmar’s future remains uncertain, with several possible outcomes:

  • Prolonged Civil War – The conflict drags on, escalating regional instability.
  • A Fractured State – Myanmar splinters into semi-autonomous regions.
  • Junta Collapse – The military fractures, leading to negotiations or regime fall.
  • China-Brokered Stabilization – Beijing seeks a political settlement to protect its economic interests while keeping the military in power.

THE ROAD AHEAD

ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus has failed, and Western nations remain hesitant to intervene. Dr. Byrd warned that without stronger diplomatic pressure, targeted sanctions, and humanitarian aid, Myanmar risks further collapse.

“The resistance is gaining ground, but the junta remains entrenched,” Dr. Byrd said. “Will Myanmar’s struggle lead to stability or further fragmentation? The world must not look away.”

FURTHER READING

To further explore the complexities of Myanmar’s conflict and its regional implications, Dr. Byrd recommends two insightful reads: Imperfect Partners: The United States and Southeast Asia by Ambassador Scot Marciel, and Best Laid Plans: The Inside Story of Reform in Aung San Suu Kyi’s Myanmar by Sean Turnell.