In a new article for the Indo-Pacific Defense Journal, Dr. Miemie Winn Byrd highlights the potential collapse of Myanmar’s military junta, which seized power in February 2021. The resistance coalition, strengthened by an unprecedented alliance of ethnic armed organizations (EAO) and the National Unity Government (NUG), has liberated key towns, including the northeastern command headquarters in Lashio. The junta now controls less than 30% of the country.

International reactions, particularly from China, have shifted due to rising criminal activity in Myanmar, including human trafficking near the Chinese border. Byrd notes, “The conflict has shattered the illusion of the military’s might,” underscoring the junta’s deteriorating position. Despite Beijing’s pressure for a ceasefire and a military-administered election, Myanmar’s population remains committed to removing the military from politics.

Byrd calls for China to reconsider its approach, suggesting alignment with the pro-democracy movement would be in its long-term interest.

Miemie Byrd is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies.  The views expressed in this article are her own and do not reflect those of DKI APCSS, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.