“This is Not the Status Quo You’re Looking For” by Lauren Dickey and DKI APCSS’ Col. Matthew Kent was recently published by War on the Rocks.
In the article, the authors argue that the United States’ longstanding policy of maintaining the “status quo” on Taiwan is increasingly misaligned with contemporary geostrategic realities. Rooted in Cold War-era agreements, the policy aims to deter hostilities by avoiding an official stance on Taiwan’s sovereignty. However, this approach has not accounted for China’s use of gray zone tactics—subtle, coercive measures that fall short of provoking military conflict but aim to achieve political objectives. According to the authors, the “status quo,” once effective in a very different geopolitical landscape, now risks enabling China’s aggressive posturing and undermining Taiwan’s security.
The historical framework of U.S. policy on Taiwan emerged from President Richard Nixon’s strategic rapprochement with China in the 1970s, driven by a desire to counter the Soviet Union and prevent further Asian conflicts. This approach led to key agreements like the Taiwan Relations Act and the “one China” policy. While these documents were designed with deliberate ambiguity to allow flexibility, the current reliance on them has left U.S. policy reactive and outdated, particularly as Taiwan has evolved into a vibrant democracy and economic powerhouse.
The article advocates for a comprehensive policy review to address China’s rising ambitions and Taiwan’s changing role in global affairs. “Washington’s persistent defense of the ‘status quo’ renders U.S. posture a defensive one,” the author states, emphasizing the need for a proactive approach. By revisiting the foundational policies and engaging in interagency coordination, the U.S. can recalibrate its strategy to better reflect the realities of the Taiwan Strait and safeguard its interests in the Indo-Pacific.
Read the full article online at: https://warontherocks.com/2024/11/this-is-not-the-status-quo-youre-looking-for/
Lauren Dickey, PhD is a non-resident senior associate for the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. From January 2020 to March 2024, she served as senior advisor and acting director for Taiwan in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
Matthew Kent is a U.S. Army officer currently serving as associate dean in the College of Security Studies at Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. He joined the College of Security Studies faculty in September 2022 following a three-year tour as chief of the Liaison Affairs Section at the American Institute in Taiwan-Taipei.
The views expressed in this article are those of the authors alone and do not represent the U.S. Army, the Department of Defense, or any part of the U.S. government.
Thank you for this. I quite agree that the “status quo” is actually highly dynamic and in many respects militating against U.S. and allied interests. A comprehensive multilateral and whole-of-government review by the incoming Trump Administration that would encompass not only Taiwan’s security interests but those of all U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands and allies in the First and Second Island Chains is urgently needed. We should identify new initiatives designed to reinforce deterrence and cooperation. I have several innovative ideas in mind myself that remain unpublished but might be highly timely. No doubt the Great Minds among CSIS, APCSS, the Pacific Caucus, EWC, America’s allies, etc. can offer many, many more.