Dr. Denny Roy, an APCSS associate professor, has published a new paper entitled “Taiwan Strait Update: Crisis Deferred.”

According to Dr. Roy’s paper, the Chen Shui-bian government’s moves toward dismantling Taiwan’s (largely symbolic) political links with China have been the main cause of increased cross-Strait tensions. However, the momentum of these moves has diminished in recent months with a strong anti-independence opposition in Taiwan and the willingness of these politicians to coordinate some activities with Beijing. These activities have increased Chinese confidence that a use of force against Taiwan will not be necessary.

“Absent an effort by Taipei to push for independence, Beijing senses that the chances of a resolution of the Taiwan question in terms favorable to China increase with time because of the relative growth of China’s economic, political and military strength,” stated Roy.

He also comments that “Based on visible trends, the chances of a military conflict over Taiwan in the near future now seem low Taiwan nevertheless remains a difficult and ongoing challenge in U.S.-China relations, prone to either sparking a downturn in bilateral relations or becoming more dangerous as a reflection of an overall deterioration in Sino-U.S. relations.”

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The views expressed in these articles are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of APCSS, the U.S. Pacific Command, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.