By Dr. James M. Minnich

September 24, 2024

The South China Sea is one of the world’s most contested and strategically significant regions. Covering over 3.5 million square kilometers, it is a vital maritime corridor and a resource-rich zone, home to fisheries, oil, and natural gas. Roughly one-third of global maritime trade passes through these waters, making the region essential for East and Southeast Asian economies and global commerce. However, it has also become a flashpoint for geopolitical rivalry, with significant implications for regional stability and global security. This critical issue was the focus of Episode 27 of the Security Nexus Webinar hosted by the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, where Professors Alex Vuving, Virginia Bacay Watson, and James Minnich engaged in a thought-provoking discussion.

China’s Expansive Claims
At the core of this dispute are China’s expansive territorial claims, encapsulated in its “nine-dash line.” This claim spans nearly the entire South China Sea and overlaps with the exclusive economic zones of several Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia. Despite the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration that invalidated China’s claims under international law, Beijing continues to assert its dominance through a mix of military, economic, and diplomatic strategies.

China’s Tactics in the South China Sea
China’s approach combines military fortification, gray zone tactics, and diplomatic leverage. Its construction of artificial islands equipped with military facilities has shifted the strategic balance, allowing China to project power far beyond its mainland. Meanwhile, China’s use of maritime militias and Coast Guard vessels to harass other claimants further destabilizes the region, blurring the line between peace and conflict.

Challenges for Southeast Asian Nations
Countries like the Philippines and Vietnam face both strategic and economic threats from China’s actions. Access to fisheries and energy resources is critical for their economies, yet they are often disadvantaged due to China’s overwhelming military and economic power. Although the Philippines secured a legal victory in the 2016 arbitration ruling, enforcing their rights remains a challenge against China’s continued assertiveness.

Broader Questions of International Order
The South China Sea raises significant concerns about the future of international order and the effectiveness of multilateralism. While the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) provides a legal framework for resolving maritime disputes, China’s refusal to comply with the 2016 ruling exemplifies the challenges of enforcing international law against major powers. As Professor Watson noted, China has effectively “thumbed its nose” at the ruling, undermining the credibility of global mechanisms. This situation underscores the critical need for stronger diplomatic and security partnerships to uphold the rules-based international order.

Global Powers and Strategic Interests
Global powers, particularly the United States, have a crucial interest in maintaining freedom of navigation and preventing any single nation from dominating the South China Sea. U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) are a central strategy in countering China’s expansive maritime claims, serving to affirm international law and challenge Beijing’s assertiveness. However, these operations carry the risk of escalating tensions and present the challenge of maintaining sustained involvement in the region. Professor Vuving observed, while U.S. FONOPs have not effectively deterred China on their own, they primarily signal Washington’s commitment to international law in the maritime domain.

A Crossroads for Diplomacy and Security
As tensions persist, the South China Sea stands at the crossroads of diplomacy, military posturing, and international law. The outcome of this dispute will have far-reaching consequences, not just for the nations involved but for the broader Indo-Pacific region and the global order. A peaceful resolution will require a delicate balance of diplomacy, legal enforcement, and strategic deterrence to ensure the South China Sea remains open and secure for all.

Book Recommendation: On Dangerous Ground: America’s Century in the South China Sea by Gregory B. Poling (Oxford University Press, 2022). The South China Sea Dispute: Philippine Sovereign Rights and Jurisdiction in the West Philippine Sea, written and published by Antonio T. Carpio (2017).