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strategic foresight

Simplifying Complexity with Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning

By |2021-01-07T16:13:06-10:00January 7th, 2021|

Strategic foresight The world is constantly evolving and changing, which often results in significant impacts on society and the crisis management community. Staying ahead of the curve requires not only an understanding of systems and complexity, but also creative and collaborative thinking and action. Strategic foresight is an ancient and latent human capability. As for all innate talents, some people are better at it than others are, and training in structures, models and methods can make a big difference. Royal Dutch Shell is most often cited as an example of early foresight methodology development. Since the 1970s, they have explored [...]

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Gaming Major Power Rivalry and Climate Disasters Using Systems Tools

By |2020-09-04T10:20:25-10:00September 4th, 2020|

This paper documents a methodology for creating crisis-games that are designed to explore possible futures in the medium and long-term. It describes a four-step process in which security practitioners work on understanding threat systems, delve into the related underlying driving forces of the threats, create future scenarios in which these forces interact and play out, and explore these scenarios using adversarial crisis-games. According to the authors, “While they have their limitations and are not an exact replica of reality, situational, role-playing crisis-games foster the application of creative and innovative thinking on challenges that cannot be analyzed using conventional statistical methods [...]

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