Dr. Deon Canyon, associate dean of academics and professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies introduces epistemic wargaming as a diagnostic methodology to address strategic miscalculation in gray-zone competition, where organizations often succeed in visible contests while neglecting slower, structurally decisive dynamics. In his new Security Nexus Perspective paper, “Diagnosing Strategic Miscalculation with Epistemic Wargaming,” Canyon highlights how attention allocation failure—not simple misperception—drives miscalculation. Unlike traditional wargaming, epistemic wargaming focuses on how participants prioritize competing contests under ambiguity, revealing institutional blind spots and the opportunity costs of misplaced attention. By simulating multiple concurrent arcs, the methodology exposes how professional cultures optimize within familiar contests while structural shifts proceed unnoticed. This approach offers national security institutions a practical tool to diagnose and mitigate miscalculation before consequences become irreversible.
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