By Dr. James M. Minnich
October 7, 2024

In the face of rising sea levels, Pacific Island nations are waging a critical battle—not with weapons, but with international law. Their fight for survival was the focus of Episode 28 of Dialogue, “Law and Rising Seas,” where DKI APCSS professor Dr. James Minnich spoke with Dr. Joanna Siekiera, Assistant Professor at War Studies University, Warsaw, Poland. They explored the complex challenges facing these small island states as they confront a threat that goes beyond environmental concerns, impacting their sovereignty, territorial integrity, and human security. While discussing the potential for maritime disputes and mass displacement, Dr. Siekiera emphasized, “We are risking instability…. This ocean change is affecting the stability in the region.”

Land Loss and the Erosion of Statehood
Imagine entire communities forced to abandon their ancestral homes. As sea levels rise, low-lying islands like Kiribati, Tuvalu, and the Marshall Islands risk losing significant portions of their land or even disappearing entirely. This loss of territory presents a critical challenge, as territory is a foundational component of statehood under international law. Predictions suggest that some Pacific nations could lose most of their land by the end of this century, creating large numbers of displaced people—often referred to as climate refugees. However, international law does not currently recognize this status. “This is not just an environmental issue,” Dr. Siekiera emphasized, “It’s about the fundamental right of these nations to exist.”

Protecting Maritime Boundaries
The threat extends beyond land loss. Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), which grant rights to marine resources within 200 nautical miles of coastlines, are also at risk. As coastlines erode, these EEZs could shrink, severely impacting the economic and resource sovereignty of these nations.

Innovative Legal Strategies
UNCLOS, adopted 30 years ago, provides a framework for defining and protecting maritime boundaries. But it was created in a world unaware of the dramatic impacts of climate change. Now, island nations are utilizing UNCLOS in innovative ways to try to preserve their sovereign rights. “These nations are demonstrating remarkable foresight and legal ingenuity,” Dr. Siekiera observed.

Cultural and Human Security at Stake
Rising sea levels also pose significant cultural and human security challenges. For Pasifika, the ocean is integral to their identity, culture, and way of life. Displacement threatens not only their homes but also their traditions and spiritual connections to the land and sea. Relocating entire populations has been proposed, but this is met with resistance from communities who fear the loss of their cultural heritage.

A Global Imperative
The proactive stance taken by Pacific Island nations has broader implications for international law and global environmental governance. Their efforts to adapt existing legal frameworks could serve as a model for other regions. By pioneering these strategies, these nations are leading the charge in how international law might evolve to address the impact of climate change on state sovereignty.

The fight of Pacific Island nations against rising sea levels is a defining issue of our time. Their innovative legal strategies to protect their maritime zones and cultural heritage serve as a beacon for how the world might confront the multifaceted impacts of climate change.

Book Recommendation:
21st Century as the Pacific Century: Culture and Security of Oceania States in Great Power Competition edited by Joanna Siekiera (University of Warsaw Press, 2023).

Disclaimer: the opinions expressed in this video are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect DoD or DKI APCSS policy.