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pandemic

SARS-CoV-2 Mutations, Variants, and National Security

By |2021-05-07T08:34:56-10:00May 8th, 2021|

By Deon Canyon, Sebastian Kevany and Michael S. Baker * Mutations are caused by random, spontaneous errors in the RNA-based genetic code of viruses that occur as the virus replicates within a host. The process of continually emerging, small mutations is called antigenic drift. In influenza and Covid, these mutations are often noticeable by observing changes in viral surface proteins, otherwise known as antigens. The human immune system identifies and reacts to foreign antigens by producing antibodies that target the infection. Most vaccines work by presenting a harmless version of the foreign antigen to train the immune system to be [...]

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An International Public Health and Virus Surveillance Network for National Security

By |2021-05-06T11:02:18-10:00May 6th, 2021|

By Deon Canyon, Sebastian Kevany and Michael S. Baker* Introduction The monitoring and surveillance of novel and variant, emergent and resurgent, infectious viral diseases is a core need for global health and national security. The United States has not, to date, put a priority on the funding and resourcing of private and public laboratories to identify and monitor Covid variants and mutations. While the U.K. sequences 10% of its positive cases, the U.S. currently only inspects around 0.3-1.5% of positive tests for the presence of viral mutations, which is lower than Gambia, Senegal and even Latvia. This created a “gaping [...]

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Anti-Vaccine Sentiment – An Existential Disrupter of National and International Security

By |2021-03-25T11:52:16-10:00March 26th, 2021|

By Deon Canyon and Sebastian Kevany* Vaccine Fears versus Epidemic Containment There are at least 51 brands of viral vaccines containing inactivated or attenuated viruses. Inactivated vaccines prompt an immune response by introducing dead virus particles, while attenuated vaccines contain non-pathogenic live virus particles. These and other vaccines have been extremely effective around the world in preventing 6 million deaths annually, while in the United States, nine diseases have been reduced by 99%. People are unimmunized for various reasons. Most are children who miss out on basic immunization in developing nations due to lack of access. For instance, 190,000 children [...]

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Looking Forward: Pandemic, Economic, Vaccine and Social Predictions for ‘Year Two’

By |2021-03-25T11:16:52-10:00March 25th, 2021|

By Sebastian Kevany and Deon Canyon* Summary:  Over a year in to the global pandemic, demand for prognoses and models that will assist in determining key decisions and planning remains as strong as ever – resulting in entire industries that provide forecasts, foresight and insight into possible future outcomes. This demand is in spite of the numerous failures of scientists, academics, politicians, and modelers to work out what is going to happen next.  Nonetheless, the authors attempt to advise on policy and planning decisions for professional activities over the coming six months, up to Autumn / Fall 2021. Never Make [...]

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Competitive Security Gaming: Rethinking Wargaming to Provide Competitive Intelligence that Informs Strategic Competition and National Security

By |2020-12-01T16:06:35-10:00November 24th, 2020|

This article illustrates how wargaming may be used to inform a higher-level strategy, rather than conflict. Summary Generating competitive intelligence to make intelligent decisions in a world increasingly facing complex security challenges is more difficult than ever before. Competitive Security Gaming reframes wargaming in terms of strategic, operational and tactical competition rather than conflict. Like business wargames, it produces quality insight into the reactions and strategies of competing actors. But unlike business games, it focuses on higher-level strategy, such as national security objectives, and is not driven by market value and financial gain. When it comes to operationalizing strategic competition [...]

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Planning for Military Involvement in an Indo-Pacific Pandemic Vaccination Program

By |2020-11-18T14:48:25-10:00November 18th, 2020|

This article addresses the pros, cons, and planning of military involvement in an Indo-Pacific Pandemic Vaccination Program. Summary The Indo-Pacific contains most of the world’s population and many frail health systems that may falter when it comes to implementing a vast global vaccination campaign against COVID-19. For decades, military medicine has pioneered vaccination programs and is aware of the complex ethical considerations involved. Military involvement in vaccination programs could do immeasurable harm to soft power efforts and international relations if mishandled. It is likely that the Oslo humanitarian doctrine, stipulating that foreign military assistance should only be used as a [...]

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A Health Security Pandemic Checklist for Developing Nations and Donors

By |2020-06-16T12:24:12-10:00June 12th, 2020|

In this paper, the authors provide a checklist for some of the measures that were proven effective during the COVID-19 pandemic and how developing countries may apply those measures to local conditions. Excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic presents as a global, complex, public health emergency that varies in impact due to geography, variations in virulence over time and space, response preparation times, available resources, culture, religion, and a host of other possible confounders. Response systems that have shown encouraging quantitative results in one nation may thus be ineffective, or even counterproductive in other places. Developed nations have responded in a variety [...]

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Urgent Policies Required to Grant Public Access to Protected Health Information during Emergency Disease Outbreaks and Pandemics

By |2020-06-10T13:45:09-10:00June 10th, 2020|

This OpEd discuss the pros and cons of using tracking apps to stay ahead of disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Excerpt: While some believe that contact tracing apps produce benefits as soon as users increase above 10 percent of a population, there remain PHI-related shortcomings in these approaches because such apps do not actually measure the circumstances that are known to be important in COVID-19 transmission. This lack of accuracy in granular data makes it difficult for both disease managers and individuals to benefit. Apps with inappropriately short infection-interaction algorithms will show too many people as possibly infected (as [...]

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Why is China on a Hyper-Aggressive Streak during a Global Pandemic?

By |2020-06-09T14:35:40-10:00June 9th, 2020|

In this OpEd, Dr. Srini Sitaraman offers three explanations as to why China is engaged in hyper-aggressive behavior in the midst of a global pandemic. Excerpt: As the tensions surrounding China’s accountability in the cause and origins of the COVID-19 continue to mount, China has instigated a global campaign of aggressive rhetoric termed—Wolf Warrior Diplomacy and increased its assertiveness in taking advantage of countries distracted by the global pandemic. Beijing has commenced a violent political crackdown in Hong Kong completely overturning the One-Country, Two-Systems Model to crush all forms of democracy in Hong Kong. View/Download Document [...]

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Ships Become Dangerous Places During a Pandemic

By |2020-05-05T13:31:19-10:00May 5th, 2020|

In this paper, Wade Turvold and Jim McMullin illustrate the difficulties of life aboard ocean-going vessels and cite historic cases of how onboard ventilation systems and close-quarters living conditions have contributed to the spread of contagious diseases, including COVID-19. Excerpt: “Due to their unique features, ships become particularly dangerous places during times of pandemic. The outbreaks in the USS Leviathan and the MV Diamond Princess both point to the same lesson. Ships with their characteristically crowded conditions, small spaces, and poor ventilation increase the transmission rate of breath-borne respiratory illnesses. “ View/Download Document

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